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Adaptation Working Group Webinar

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Quantitative modeling and participatory scenario planning: Complementary tools for climate change adaptation
Amy Symstad1, Nicholas Fisichelli2, Brian W. Miller3, 4
1USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
2National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, now with the Schoodic Institute at Acadia National Park
3DOI North Central Climate Science Center
4U.S. Geological Survey

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Others have made the case that scientists can increase the salience and usability of their research by engaging with decision-makers. However, there remains a need to develop effective methods of engagement that support resource management decision-making under climate change. Here, we describe an ongoing study from southwest South Dakota in which we are piloting an iterative approach for combining quantitative ecological modeling with qualitative, participatory scenario planning (SP). This approach included conducting a series of workshops with resource managers to identify key resources and uncertainties. Based on these workshops, additional expert elicitation, and published literature, we developed a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics. The model was then used to explore the effects of multiple climate and management scenarios that were developed through the SP process. Preliminary results suggest that qualitative and quantitative scenario planning provide complimentary information that aids in grappling with the uncertainty of managing natural resources under climate change. The model can be modified as management needs, conditions, and information change.