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ReVAMP Funded Projects

Scaling climate change adaptation in the northern Great Plains through regional climate summaries and local qualitative-quantitative scenario planning workshops

Climate change is expressed in both regional climatic shifts (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) and local resource impacts. Resource management in a changing climate is challenging because future climate change and resource responses cannot be precisely predicted. Scenario planning is a tool to assess the range of plausible future conditions. However, selecting, acquiring, synthesizing, and scaling climate information for scenario planning requires significant time and skills.

Forecasting changes in sagebrush distribution and abundance under climate change: integration of spatial, temporal, and mechanistic models

The future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, yet we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which are prone to a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat vulnerability to climate change.

The Wind River Indian Reservation’s vulnerability to the impacts of drought and the development of decision tools to support drought preparedness

This project conducts an interdisciplinary, technical assessment of key social-ecological vulnerabilities, risks, and response capacities of the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) to inform development of decision tools to support drought preparedness.

Informing adaptation strategies for maintaining landscape connectivity for Northern Rockies wildlife in the face of climate change

Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary due to our changing climate.

Understanding dynamics of land use switching with satellite and field level data in context of climate variability

What remains of the United States prairie ecosystem is threatened by economic forces and a changing climate. Grassland conversion to cropland in the Dakotas would imperil nesting waterfowl among other species and further impair water quality in the Mississippi watershed. We are working with grassland conservation managers to better target the use of public and private funds allocated toward incentivizing grassland preservation on private lands in the Dakotas.

Natural Resource Management Decision-Making under Climate Uncertainty: Building Social-Ecological Resilience in Southwestern Colorado

In southwestern Colorado, climate change includes higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk.

Surrogate species for wetland-dependent birds in the prairie pothole region: selection, evaluation, and management application in the face of climate change

The Prairie Pothole Region spans parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Iowa and south-central Canada and contains millions of wetlands that provide habitat for breeding and migrating birds. Because it is the continent’s most important breeding area for waterfowl, conservation and management largely focuses on protecting habitat for nesting ducks.

Informing implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) Strategy based on climate sciences, ecological forecasting, and valuation of WBP-related ecosystem services

This project helps to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy” based on the climate science and ecological forecasting. Using this research, we are: 1. Forecasting ecosystem processes and WBP habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) under alternative IPCC future scenarios; 2. Improving understanding of possible response to future climate by analyzing WBP/climate relationships in past millennia; 3. Developing WBP management alternatives; 4.